India’s next big weather worry: What El Nino could mean for monsoon, food prices and inflation
Search EN Get started India’s next big weather worry: What El Nino could mean for monsoon, food prices and inflation4 min readIndia’s monsoon outlook has improved from the sharp deficit seen at the start of the season. July brought better rainfall and helped farmers recover…
Search EN Get started India’s next big weather worry: What El Nino could mean for monsoon, food prices and inflation4 min readIndia’s monsoon outlook has improved from the sharp deficit seen at the start of the season. July brought better rainfall and helped farmers.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, expects below-normal rainfall in August. At the same time, El Nino conditions are strengthening.
What Happened
That combination could put crops, food prices and rural demand under pressure. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its bi-monthly monetary policy announced on August 5, also flagged weather-related risks for the Indian economy.
India received rainfall around 1% above the long-period average in July, Reuters reported, citing IMD data.
The improvement helped reduce the cumulative rainfall deficit since June 1 to 12.6% by the end of July, from 35.4% at the end of June.
The IMD, nevertheless, expects August rainfall to be below 94% of the long-period average.
Key Details
Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen gradually, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on July 31. El Nino is a climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern.
It has also forecast rainfall below 94% of the long-period average for August and September combined.
Summer crop sowing was nearly 25% lower than a year earlier at the end of June.
The shortfall had narrowed to less than 5% by the end of July, according to data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare.
Why It Matters
It can disrupt global weather patterns and alter rainfall across several regions. India has recorded below-average rainfall in many previous El Nino years.
The agency, last week, said the effects of the El Nino period beginning in 2026 will likely reach the region mainly through weaker rainfall and climate disruption.
But it has warned that households remain vulnerable to further weather-related supply shocks.
What Reports Say
Coverage of the story so far points to:
Continued reporting by TradingView as more details emerge
